Economic Outlook 2016

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Nouriel Roubini is one of the few economists who predicted the housing bubble crash of 2007-2008. His predictions have earned him the nickname “Dr. Doom” in the media – but at DLD16 he said we shouldn’t expect a global recession in the next year.

A major cause of such a global recession would be if China were to experience a hard landing Roubini thinks this is unlikely. “I believe neither in a soft nor a hard landing for the Chinese. I think it’s going to be a bumpy landing”, the economist said. This will be rough but it won’t lead to a global recession.

Looking at the rest of the world, Roubini identifies a fear within Europe that the Eurozone could break down, and the “mixed bag” that is the US, where certain things are doing well whereas others are not.

For the global economy, Roubini believes we need not fear a global financial crisis in 2016. That’s the good news. The bad news is that we will have a global slow down.

Interestingly Roubini said the ubiquitous geopolitical risk is hardly having an impact on economy.

What is – and more importantly, what will in the coming years have an impact on economy, is technology. Technology has many positive aspects, such as its potential to increase productivity. But it also threatens many jobs.

Roubini concluded by saying that it is the sum of technologies’ consequences that should be discussed, taking both the positive and the negative aspects into account.