The crystal ball of Henry Blodget
What will be, will be?! Henry Blodget from "Business Insider" asked his crystal ball about the future of digitalization. As we know today: It's only the beginning.
Productivity saved ourselves 30 hours of work per week over the last 150 years, Blodget started to explain. But what are we doing with the time we saved? We spend 28 hours watching TV every week. But we should spend this time for innovations. Will digitalization change this?
With digitalization now 3 billion people are connected worldwide. 4 more billion people to go, but this goal will be reached very fast, Blodget predicted. Mobile is the key. This shift to mobile is generational and we're only at the beginning. Digital is reaching a new generation. We see an increase in smartphone sales, but tablets are slowing down, fablets are growing because of replacing older and smaller smartphones.
Other predictions from Henry Blodget: Connected TVs (smart TVs) are growing. Wearables are overhyped, but still growing and maybe Apple's iWatch will be able to push the market. Cars are increasingly connected and smarter. internet of things will be the next big thing of the next 20 years.
China is dwarfing US. It already double the US market. Chinese companies sell approx. 25% of smartphones worldwide, the prices are dropping fast. iPhone sales have slowed, but iPhone 6 will help. Global tablet growth has hit a wall. It means it nearly stopped. iPad is now experiencing "negative growth".
Why? Blodget mentioned 3 reasons: 1. Tablets have a much longer update circle. 2. Bigger smartphones are replacing tablets. 3. Generally still expensive. Kindle is much cheaper, tablet prices should dropping fast.
Google now dwarfs "big media". It's almost half the size of all global television advertising. Laughing on digital? Things are now starting to change! Facebook reaches now more young people every day as TV. Netflix has more subscribers as HBO. YouTube reaches more 18-34-years-old people than any TV. YouTube is closing on TV channels, e.g. one of the biggest TV channels in the US: CBS.
But TV ad spending is still massive. But it's only a matter of time until the generational shift will reach them. We are just at the beginning of the shift, and the money will follow. We now spend on average one hour per day on our smartphones. Mobile has extended the digital day to 18/7. It's the first thing in the morning and the last thing before going to bed. It drives a lot of traffic to the big players like Facebook and Google.
But has Google too much power? The Europe parliament is trying to cut them because Google is swallowing everything. And is Facebook still the big player when it comes to Teens? 12-year-experts are saying No. Parents are on Facebook too, there's no private space. That's why teens love Instagram. Their parents still think it's all about photos and sharing, but it's a whole social network. Teens think Tumblr and its users are creapy and a mobile number is only for texting, messaging, not for calling anymore.
Well, we are in a boom now. A long boom, Blodget mentioned. We are not in a bubble, but also booms are followed by bust. Someday this boom will end in a bust, maybe in 2-3 years. Who know it exactly? So hope for the best, prepare for the worst, raise money when you can, not when you have to.